Is Trump running for president again in 2024? We have no idea. We don’t know what Trump thinks or what the Republican Party thinks. If Trump does choose to run in 2024 though, he sure will get the nomination as Republican presidential candidate or run as an independent due to his strong existing supporter base. It is nearly impossible and useless to predict whether Trump will run or not. The important question here is: should he?

Trump’s appeal to his hardcore supporters is robust. There is no questioning. Just watch one of his MAGA rallies on YouTube or read the comments on any social media posts related to politics and you will know. 

Trump’s robust and hardcore support not only come from the ordiary MAGA people, but also come from within the Republican Party. In a straw poll conducted at Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) that asked current and former Republican officials, activists, and writers who they want the Republican presidential nominee to be in 2024, Trump came on top with 55% of the vote, followed by Florida governor Ron DeSantis with 21%. This poll shows clearly that Republicans are optimistic of Trump’s odds to win the 2024 election. But is it?

The odds of Trump winning in 2024 is near zero because it is impossible for him to garner the support of the 50 plus 1 percent. Trump is the president who failed to win the popular vote in both the 2016 election and the 2020 election. Vote percentage was 46.1% for Trump in 2016 and 46.9% in 2020. Trump is also the president whose approval rating has NEVER surpassed the 50% mark, according to Gallup Polls. In fact, Trump had the lowest average approval rating among United States presidents since when approval rating became a thing during Franklin D. Roosevelt’s presidency, at 41%. These numbers already showed Trump’s inability to extend his appeal to the 50 plus 1 percent. To add on to these already deficient and awful numbers, Trump’s actions after election night crushed any chance at all for a re-run in 2024. The Capitol Riot on January 6th was the official funeral.

The problem right now is that people won’t even care about Trump’s policies any more. All they know and all they need to know is that Trump is the president who refused to concede to a democratic process; Trump is the president who overused Twitter to spread misinformation; Trump is the president who incited violence on January 6th in an attempt to disrupt the electoral certification of Joe Biden’s victory. Trump killed his own character. His public image is forever buried in the deepest of Earth. How is he going to garner the 50 plus 1, an achievement he has never accomplished before, now after committing these unpresidential actions that threatened democracy and stability?

Personally, I would not even consider voting for Trump, regardless of how great his policies are or how much I agree with them. His presidential character and leadership is just below par. I honestly don’t think this should be a partisan issue. This isn’t about partisan policies, this is about character and leadership that everyone should agree to. I am not even a liberal or a democrat. If you read my bio and my previous articles, you will know I am a realpolitik who dislikes “beliefs by partisan association”. I am a big advocate for logical reasonings over partisan beliefs. I analyze politics and issues using nonpartisan reasonings. I treat politics and issues as what they really are, instead of which party supports what. So as a realpolitik, I would not consider voting for Trump because of his lack of character and leadership, not because he is a Republican. I strongly believe that many Americans also agree with me. According to Gallup Polls, Trump’s approval rating dropped to 29% following the assault on the U.S. Capitol. Welp, if the Republican Party nominates Ron DeSantis or someone else for president in 2024, I would absolutely do my civic duty and consider voting him/her as a potential president regardless of the party.

From the Republican Party’s perspective, if they want to have any chance of winning the 2024 presidential election, they need to nominate someone else beside Trump. They definitely should not nominate Trump for president, there is no way he can get the 50 plus 1 percent. Trump’s public image is now deeply engraved in Americans’ minds. What the Republican Party needs to do is to move on from Trump; Trump’s awful public image is hurting them. If the Republican Party wishes to continue Trump’s agendas for whatever reasons, then sure, just nominate someone else who will continue those agendas for president. Ron DeSantis appears to be a good choice, if Florida continues its upward trend in terms of combating Covid-19. DeSantis might be able to bring out youthful glamour in American politics once again like John F. Kennedy did in 1960. We have had Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Hillary Clinton in the past two presidential elections, all of them being quite old. So Ron DeSantis could really be a good bet.