Numerous Republicans, prominently Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Josh Hawley, have been repeatedly claiming that the Republican Party has become the party of the working-class recently. In fact, Trump has been pushing this rhetoric since his 2016 presidential campaign, where he repeatedly claimed his support “comes from the blue-collar workers”. The truth is, the Republican Party is rebranding itself as the workers’ party. Trumpism, also known as populist-conservatism, is an economically populist and socially conservative ideology that appeals to the blue-collar workers. Its policies include stronger border policies, easier paths to citizenship for hard-working immigrants, immigration reforms, reindustrialisation, protectionism, and relatively large government spendings. These policies create jobs and protect employment for blue-collar workers.

Now let’s look at some numbers that illustrate the blue-collar shift for the Republican Party. According to a NBC News poll, the percentage of blue-collar workers who identify themselves as Republicans has grown by 12 points in the past decade. Breaking the shift into racial groups, the percentage of white blue-collar workers who call themselves Republicans has grown from 45% to 57% in the past decade; the percentage of hispanic blue-collar workers who call themselves Republicans has grown from 23% to 36% in the past decade; and the percentage of black blue-collar workers who call themselves Republicans has grown from 5% to 12% in the past decade. Obviously, the shift is real, and quite significant to the future of politics too. This shift could possibly define the future of the Republican Party, but it also underscores a division within the party.

There is a division within the Republican Party currently, between Trumpists and traditional Libertarian-Conservatives who favor a small federal government, lowering taxes, and having less regulation in the economy. Currently, most GOP activists and donors are more libertarian. So pro-Trumpism Republicans like Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, and Lindsey Graham are going to have a difficult time trying to rebrand their party. This will surely be an interesting development to witness in the near future.

But why are Republicans rebranding their party as the workers’ party? Well, history has told us that anytime changes occur, it’s always because there are problems with the status quo. So what’s wrong with the current Republican Party, the party that supports limited government, tax cuts, and interventionism? Check this fact out: Republicans have lost 7 of the last 8 popular votes in presidential elections. The only time the Republicans won the popular vote was in 2004, when incumbent president George W. Bush defeated Democratic nominee John Kerry. This shows a lot about the Republican Party. This suggests that the traditional Republican program of limited government, tax cuts, less regulation, and interventionism is insufficient in appealing and garnering voters. This fact also shows why Republicans have been fiercely defending the electoral college amid calls from liberals for abolition. The Republicans are logically right to rebrand their party, they have to make changes in order to appeal to more voters and grab power in the government.

This shift to blue-collar workers is actually a part of the long standing trend of the Republican Party severing itself away from association with the upper-class, Herbert Hoover, the Great Depression, and large corporations and the rich. Ever since the Great Depression under President Herbert Hoover, Americans have always had the idea that the Republican Party is indifferent to the economic conditions of the ordinary citizens and that it only cares about making large corporations and the rich prosper. As the Roaring Twenties in the 1920s showed, the policies of consecutive Republican Presidents Warren G. Harding, Calvin Coolidge, and Herbert Hoover strongly favored big corporations and created great economic inequality. The great economic inequality was one of the causes of the Great Depression, as it reduced ordinary Americans’ purchasing power, which caused demand to plummet. To make matters worse, President Hoover was very indifferent to the lives of ordinary Americans as the economic conditions worsened after the stock market crash of 1929. During his term from 1929 to 1933, Hoover refused to extend the power of the federal government to provide assistance to the ordinary Americans, as he was a stubborn believer in free market capitalism with no government interference. From 1929 to 1932, the United States GDP had fallen by one-third, prices had fallen by 40 percent, and more than 11 million Americans - 25 percent of the labor force - could not find work.

What happened after the Great Depression was 20 years of Democrats' control of the federal government. In the minds of the ordinary Americans, the Republicans didn't care about them, so they turned their votes to the Democratic Party. In his famous New Deal programs, Democratic President Franklin Delano Roosevelt implemented many public work programs and federal assistance benefits aimed at helping ordinary Americans, such as the Public Works Administration, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and most significantly, the Social Security Act. The Social Security Act essentially launched the American version of the welfare state, a system of income assistance, health coverage, and social services for all citizens. 

In the 1930s and the 1940s, the lives of many ordinary Americans depended on the welfare state. So when Dwight Eisenhower became president as a Republican in 1953, he decided not to roll back New Deal programs and the welfare state, despite pressure from right-wing Republicans urging him to do so, and instead expanded them. Eisenhower kept intact core New Deal programs and expanded Social Security to agricultural workers. Eisenhower also used government spending to promote productivity and boost employment, as he presided over the largest public-works enterprise in American history, the building of the 41,000-mile interstate highway system. Eisenhower called his domestic agenda Modern Republicanism, which occupied a middle ground between liberal Democrats and traditional conservatives. Modern Republicanism aimed to sever Republican Party’s identification in the minds of many Americans with Herbert Hoover, the Great Depression, and indifference to the economic conditions of ordinary Americans.

So what the Republican Party is doing right now is very similar to what Dwight Eisenhower did in 1953, they are trying to erase elitism (economically in this case) from their party’s outlook and instead embrace a populist appeal. I expect this transformation to kick off a “battle for the blue-collars” between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party. The two major parties are going to implement policies and promote rhetorics that favor the blue-collar workers in the near future. I anticipate the Democrats to become more progressive in order to maintain their working class support. The American Jobs Plan newly unveiled by President Biden surely is an initiative aimed at helping blue-collar workers and garnering their support, by creating millions of jobs. Logically speaking, Trumpists such as Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley should be supporting this plan, but their association with the mainstream Republican Party and opposition within the party could hinder them from staying consistent with their words.